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Post by Trog on Jun 12, 2023 6:36:29 GMT
For both Putin and Russia Wagner will not sign any contract with Russian defence minister: PrigozhinShogi would not have issued such an order independently - it would have come from Putin and on behalf of Putin. Everybody knows this. For Prigozhin to publicly refuse it is an act of mutiny, against Putin. Everybody knows this too. So, Putin cannot afford to let it ride. And Prigozhin can't back down. I think that there are some serious probabilities here of a Russian civil war. Maybe one can even interpret the destruction of the Kakhovka dam in terms of the above - somebody somewhere is going to be massively embarrassed. |
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Post by Trog on Jun 24, 2023 7:08:59 GMT
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Post by Trog on Jun 24, 2023 7:24:04 GMT
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Post by cjm on Jun 24, 2023 7:42:21 GMT
What is likely ominous for Russia is that it seems that Rostov-on-Don is INSIDE Russia. Until now the fighting against Ukraine has largely centered on Ukrainian territory. It creates an opportunity for attacks inside Russia, blaming it on Wagner. |
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Post by Trog on Jun 24, 2023 11:01:00 GMT
What is likely ominous for Russia is that it seems that Rostov-on-Don is INSIDE Russia. Until now the fighting against Ukraine has largely centered on Ukrainian territory. It creates an opportunity for attacks inside Russia, blaming it on Wagner. The entire Russian logistics infrastructure w.r.t. the war in Ukraine is centered on Rostov-on-Don. If they don't control it, their Ukrainian effort is floored. It seems as if the formal Russian forces are unwilling to engage with Wagner. Almost all successful revolutions are as a result of the armed forces being in some way complicit with the usurpers. They probably have zero leadership about this, anyway. |
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Post by Trog on Jun 24, 2023 11:52:28 GMT
My guess is Prigozhin is going to drive straight into Moscow. The Russian army is not going to stop him. For 18 months Putin has sent them to die a senseless death with no support, no equipment, no food, no way out. Prigozhin offers them some hope of life.
And anyway, Prigozhin cannot pull out, anymore. He must go all the way. If Putin gets him, he's dead. So for him it is absolutely all or nothing.
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Post by Trog on Jun 25, 2023 8:10:10 GMT
Astonishing, and for the moment, inexplicable.
Prigozhin cannot possibly believe that he will not shortly die, in Belarus. Unless. Unless what? Maybe he has huge leverage, in some devious way?
Anyway, I agree with some that this was probably the first act in a 3 act drama. The 3rd act being about the end of the Putin era.
Also, Russia's response must've been a massive shock for Putin, and his entire cohort. I'm sure it will impact greatly on their confidence to allocate resources to the war in Ukraine.
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Post by cjm on Jun 26, 2023 8:33:59 GMT
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Post by cjm on Jun 26, 2023 8:45:49 GMT
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Post by Trog on Jun 26, 2023 9:54:34 GMT
I won't be too surprised if it transpires that Prigozhin is already dead. He has not been seen or heard of since he left Rostov-on-Don after news broke of his 'deal' with Lukashenko.
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Post by cjm on Jun 27, 2023 8:49:24 GMT
Kudos Trog, for picking up on this story so early.  |
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Post by cjm on Jul 2, 2023 8:25:17 GMT
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Post by Trog on Jul 6, 2023 9:18:34 GMT
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Post by cjm on Jul 6, 2023 9:41:35 GMT
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Post by Trog on Jul 9, 2023 12:16:52 GMT
Prigozhin has not yet been seen since the march on Moscow. He apparently made some statements on social media, but that could be anybody.
Anyway, neither he nor Wagner is in Belarus, and rumours are that they are in Russia. If he is not dead, and that is true, then something huge is brewing in Russia, because their presence there is not sustainable. Not in a Russia where Putin is in control. If they can indeed maintain their presence in Russia then something is massively wrong, somewhere.
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