South Africa has been captured by deindustrialisation

China.

(As long as it is going to be cheaper to import something from China than it is to manufacture it here, de-industrialisation in South Africa is a given).

There has also been a profound change in the nature of manufactured goods, over the past 2 decades:

I totally refuse to buy anything manufactured in China, because the quality is absolutely shit. I'm usually prepared to pay as much as 10x more for something manufactured in Germany, for instance, because I know I'll be able to use it for the next 20 years, instead of just once.

But this is no longer a feasible point of view, in many instances. The rate of technological advances in consumer electronics is such that, whatever is available today, will almost certainly be improved by orders of magnitude in just 1 or 2 years. In that case, it makes no sense to pay for something with the quality that will last for 10 years, because you'll be throwing it away and replacing it within 2 years with something new anyway. And this is not just driven by a desire for trendiness - if I can get 40 MBits/s download speed with a new modem instead of 3 MBits/s, it is a real advantage.

In those situations, the clever and sensible design is precisely the one that lasts for 2 years, and no longer. But that calls for rapid development, rapid set up, rapid response to demands - which are things that Chinese manufacturers do well, but South Africans don't.

So, my guess is that the future of South African manufacturing is in the production of high-quality, mature-technology items where inherent durability is an asset.

Well, the SABS mark always, very rightfully, commanded respect, even if it was a bit unadventurous and staid. In general I perceived goods with an SABS mark as equivalent in quality with anything manufactured in Europe. It seems to have died an inglorious and silent death, for some reason.

But during those years it was still cheaper to manufacture many things (most of which were not impacted by sanctions at all) in South Africa than to import it. These days, they cannot even breed chickens here at the same price as the imported stuff.

As I said, I think the solution for us is to manufacture high-quality, mature-technology items, probably in highly automated facilities using a minimum of labour. Stuff like valves, armatures, transformers, gearboxes, pumps, whatever. Things one could make with locally produced steel and copper alloys. It is even difficult to find good quality hand-tools these days - hammers, screwdrivers, spanners, wrenches - maybe another possibility.

But, as to the point if the quoted article - I don't think manufacturing will ever again be an intensive employer of labour in this country. Labour is just too expensive, involves too much risk. Those guys will just have to lie around doing nothing, I reckon.