Post by Trog on Apr 6, 2020 6:17:49 GMT
A while back I've predicted that we would have about 100,000 COVID infections by now.
I think I more or less stand by that figure. As a lower estimate - it could be substantially higher. It would, of course, take at least a week for the lock-down to have an effect on the infection rate. So that would be about now. It is, however, impossible to say what that effect really is, since the protocol for testing has changed substantially at exactly the time the lock-down began. What is disconcerting is that the number of tests per day since then has stayed quite constant, about 3000, and the percentage of positives has also stayed pretty constant, at about 2%. That would indicate to me that the infection rate has not yet decreased substantially since lock-down.
So, bottom line: 100,000 cases at the very least. It seems as if a 2% mortality rate might be a realistic thumb-suck for what to expect in South Africa. Therefore I expect about 2,000 fatalities in South Africa within about 3 weeks from now. If they will be reported is another matter.
I think I more or less stand by that figure. As a lower estimate - it could be substantially higher. It would, of course, take at least a week for the lock-down to have an effect on the infection rate. So that would be about now. It is, however, impossible to say what that effect really is, since the protocol for testing has changed substantially at exactly the time the lock-down began. What is disconcerting is that the number of tests per day since then has stayed quite constant, about 3000, and the percentage of positives has also stayed pretty constant, at about 2%. That would indicate to me that the infection rate has not yet decreased substantially since lock-down.
So, bottom line: 100,000 cases at the very least. It seems as if a 2% mortality rate might be a realistic thumb-suck for what to expect in South Africa. Therefore I expect about 2,000 fatalities in South Africa within about 3 weeks from now. If they will be reported is another matter.
