The Great Stupidity

cjm
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The Great Stupidity Apr 11, 2020 7:45:39 GMT

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Post by cjm on Apr 11, 2020 7:45:39 GMT

The Great Stupidity

All very well, but there is something about BCG that is worth noting. A recent study from medical researchers in the US and the UK, analysing data collected from 178 countries, has found that those countries which do not have a BCG vaccination policy had ten times the incidence of and mortality from Covid-19 compared with those that do.

South Africa, where TB is rife, is in the latter category. Much to the horror of the pro-plaguers among us, the vaccination of infants with BCG is mandatory, and has been so for the past 60 years. (Look for the “Marie biscuit” on your arm to see if you’re in the club.)

BCG is an old and trusted vaccine. It was first adopted by the Health Committee of the League of Nations in 1928, but because of opposition to newfangled advances in medical science (and a disastrously compromised test in which 72 babies contracted TB and died), it first only widely used in the mid-1940s when relief organisations were able to vaccinate some eight million babies in war-ravaged eastern Europe and prevent a predicted TB outbreak.

According to reports, researchers studied Covid-19 instances and mortality around the world between March 9 and 24 and concluded that the incidence of the virus was 38.4 per million people in countries with BCG vaccination programmes, compared to 358.4 per million in countries where there was no such programme. “The death rate,” the study said, 4.28 per million in countries with BCG programmes compared to 40 per million in countries without such a programme.”

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Trog
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The Great Stupidity Apr 12, 2020 7:26:59 GMT via mobile

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Post by Trog on Apr 12, 2020 7:26:59 GMT

I came across the BCG thing about a week ago, and I was immediately extremely sceptical. TB is a bacterium. Corona is a virus. There is just no conceivable way in which immunity against one could have any possible effect on the other. It's like believing that you can cure myopia by extracting a tooth.

Seems like the people who came up with the notion were rank amateurs. They observed some faint correlation between reported infection rates between countries with BCG immunization programs in place, and significantly lower reported infection rates. For which the actual explanation is that those countries with BCG programs are exactly the ones with such pathetic clinical testing and reporting mechanisms in place that the numbers they report for Covid infection is the purest fiction - it's basically just a number they put out there, for discussion.

Whereof one cannot speak, thereof one must be silent.

cjm
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The Great Stupidity Apr 12, 2020 7:47:57 GMT

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Post by cjm on Apr 12, 2020 7:47:57 GMT

Apr 12, 2020 7:26:59 GMT Trog said:

I came across the BCG thing about a week ago, and I was immediately extremely sceptical. TB is a bacterium. Corona is a virus. There is just no conceivable way in which immunity against one could have any possible effect on the other. It's like believing that you can cure myopia by extracting a tooth.

Seems like the people who came up with the notion were rank amateurs. They observed some faint correlation between reported infection rates between countries with BCG immunization programs in place, and significantly lower reported infection rates. For which the actual explanation is that those countries with BCG programs are exactly the ones with such pathetic clinical testing and reporting mechanisms in place that the numbers they report for Covid infection is the purest fiction - it's basically just a number they put out there, for discussion.

According to reports, researchers studied Covid-19 instances and mortality around the world between March 9 and 24 and concluded that the incidence of the virus was 38.4 per million people in countries with BCG vaccination programmes, compared to 358.4 per million in countries where there was no such programme. “The death rate,” the study said, 4.28 per million in countries with BCG programmes compared to 40 per million in countries without such a programme.”

Out of the 178 countries studied, 21 had no vaccination programme. They include the United States, Italy, the Netherlands and other First World nations.

The study is currently available on ResearchGate and is reportedly under review by several scientific journals. As it so happens, I asked a scientist if there was anything worthwhile in the study, and his short answer?

“Possibly.”

As noted, there is no completed review of the paper. And, I’m told, the study only claims correlation and not cause. A big red flag is the use of “deaths per million” in the research. I was told: “Since the curves are exponential at the initial phases of the epidemic, it means huge differences between countries just because the inflection did not start at the same point. So the death rate per million, which would be a figure determined in, or for the steady state, is just not there (except maybe China, South Korea, Italy.)”

Further inquiries reveal that, off the record, very hush-hush and all that, the BCG vaccine study has been on the agenda at meetings of the National Institute of Communicable Diseases at Baragwanath and the feeling is that well, let’s not tell anyone about this just yet, at least not until the tests come through, and we know a bit more about it. Let’s not get anyone’s hopes up.

Last Edit: Apr 12, 2020 7:50:03 GMT by cjm

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Trog
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The Great Stupidity Apr 17, 2020 7:26:56 GMT

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Post by Trog on Apr 17, 2020 7:26:56 GMT

I've had hypertension for many years, now - but it is completely controllable with anti-hypertensive medications, to the extent that my blood-pressure is probably better than almost everybody in my age-group.

But, I was initially on ACE inhibitors, for about 5 years, until I could no longer tolerate the side-effects, particularly the slight dry cough that goes with it. It was not the cough so much, which was almost negligible, but the reason why I needed to cough, which was that my lungs literally felt as if they were itching inside.

So I was moved on to ARB's instead, and have been on it ever since.

Anyway, it appears that the mechanisms involved with treating hypertension with ACE inhibitors and ARBs have promising consequences for developing a treatment for COVID-19 with complications.

(Basically, it has to do with the fact that the Corona virus binds with the variant of the ACE2 enzyme which is embedded in the cell walls of many organs, (lungs, heart, kidneys, intestines) in order to gain entry into the cell. Anything that interferes with or prevents the virus's ability to do so could be a possible treatment).

Needles to say, regardless of whether a vaccine becomes available or not - if the fatal complications of COVID infection can be eliminated, it suddenly changes the entire impact of the disease, and as a threat it becomes no more significant than a common cold.

(One possible hypothesis at the moment is that people who have been treated with ACE inhibitors are at greater risk of infection than others in the same age-group, whereas those who were on ARBs are perhaps better able to tolerate complications from infection than others in the same group).

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Last Edit: Apr 17, 2020 14:05:42 GMT by Trog

Whereof one cannot speak, thereof one must be silent.

Post by cjm on Apr 11, 2020 7:45:39 GMT

Post by Trog on Apr 12, 2020 7:26:59 GMT

Post by cjm on Apr 12, 2020 7:47:57 GMT

Post by Trog on Apr 17, 2020 7:26:56 GMT

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