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Post by cjm on May 2, 2020 8:03:44 GMT
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Post by cjm on May 2, 2020 8:06:58 GMT
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Post by cjm on May 2, 2020 8:10:37 GMT
Western is the worst affected.
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Post by cjm on May 5, 2020 7:29:39 GMT
WC going through the roof.
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Post by Trog on May 5, 2020 8:43:56 GMT
WC going through the roof.
These graphs are basically just a visual indication of how pathetic public health services infrastructure is in other provinces. Gauteng, for instance, should be very close to that of the Western Cape. There is maybe one additional factor at play in the Western Cape - namely that it is a much more integrated society: The coloureds probably serve as a vector carrying the virus between CT suburbia and the townships to an extent not present in other provinces.
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Post by cjm on May 5, 2020 8:59:52 GMT
There is maybe one additional factor at play in the Western Cape - namely that it is a much more integrated society: The coloureds probably serve as a vector carrying the virus between CT suburbia and the townships to an extent not present in other provinces. So, you think the infection rate, countrywide, is much higher?
I also thought that Gauteng would be the major problem.
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Post by Trog on May 6, 2020 4:33:07 GMT
So, you think the infection rate, countrywide, is much higher? I think it is sort of accepted in the world generally that the number of confirmed cases is at most less than about 10% of the total number of people infected.* In countries with less sophisticated means to identify new infections, and I'd consider South Africa as one of them, it could be many times that. The Western Cape probably comes closest to what they are capable of in Europe. So, for SA's 7,000 confirmed cases as of the moment, you can easily add a zero, and I personally would not be averse towards adding another one. *That's why the infection fatality rate, or, alternatively your probability of dying from it given that you have been infected, is less than a tenth of the case fatality rate - which is the numbers generally reported, e.g. for Italy where about 14% of people who were confirmed as having been infected died, the infection fatality rate is less than 14/10 = 1.4%. I suspect that in truth it is probably less than even half of that, because Italy was so swamped with cases that I'm sure that their ability to identify new infections was severely compromised, so you shouldn't divide by 10, but maybe even by 20. Of course, this probability is not evenly distributed throughout the population but is age- and general-health dependent.
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Post by cjm on May 6, 2020 7:31:02 GMT
I calculated the number of tests done per million in the WC.
So, 46 285 / 6.6 = 7012.88 tests / million
In SA as a whole, the number of tests per million today is 4381. This would include the WC, so the number for the country as a whole is distorted for current purposes by the inclusion of the WC figures. The end result is that the WC tests almost double the number of people per million as compared with the rest of the country.
It seems to me that the number of positives for the rest of the country could be considerably higher were as many tests conducted there as in the WC. It is therefor not possible to compare the WC with the rest of the country.
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Post by cjm on May 6, 2020 8:17:28 GMT
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Post by Trog on May 9, 2020 6:06:02 GMT
Another thing is that, South Africa's case-fatality rate of 2% as compared to Germany's quite exceptional 4.4%, tells me that in South Africa they cannot even get the number of people who died Covid-positive right - it must at the very least be about twice the reported value.
Which is perhaps not surprising in a country where even murder is under-reported.
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Post by cjm on May 9, 2020 6:43:48 GMT
The number of tests as a whole also ranks way below other Western Countries
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Post by cjm on May 18, 2020 15:13:38 GMT
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