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Post by Trog on Oct 8, 2020 4:52:58 GMT
Bannon says so. (If he actually believes it is another matter, of course):
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Post by cjm on Oct 8, 2020 5:33:40 GMT
I'll be sick to the pit of my stomach if he loses (that is what Comey said about a Hillary loss).
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Post by Trog on Oct 26, 2020 12:03:11 GMT
Not looking good for Trump. Unless something huge happens during the coming week, like another 9/11 or such, it looks like it's the end of the road for him.
The polls were spectacularly wrong before, and they can be wrong again, but this time round his deficit is huge, and he has no Steve Bannon to tell him what to do, and he is seemingly doing all the wrong things.
If the polls turn out to be wrong again, it could be interesting to try to work out why? And I would guess that would be because the pollsters fail to reach a substantial portion of the American public - to wit that portion who don't regularly sit around doing polls. Or are routinely reachable on cellphones and stuff. But I would also guess that, if that is indeed the case, they (pollsters) would've identified the problem after the previous election, and implemented measures to cater for that. So that their estimates this time round should be a lot more accurate than last time.
Anyway, to quote the man himself: "We'll see what happens".
(Things seem to have gone wrong for him from about the end of April, or so, at which time Trump and Biden were still evenly matched, with Trump slightly ahead, sometimes. So, maybe the way he responded to the Corona virus and the George Floyd rampages did not work out well for him).
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Post by cjm on Oct 31, 2020 7:41:16 GMT
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Post by cjm on Oct 31, 2020 7:43:03 GMT
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Post by cjm on Nov 2, 2020 13:14:04 GMT
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Post by Trog on Nov 2, 2020 13:32:39 GMT
Here is an interesting page: Battleground States
You can play around with various configurations of Trump/Biden wins. Of the 'swing' states, for one configuration I found Trump can afford to lose Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Nevada and New Hampshire, and still retain the presidency. He'll have to win Arizona and Wisconsin, though, which seems doubtful.
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Post by cjm on Nov 2, 2020 13:47:59 GMT
Here is an interesting page: Battleground States
You can play around with various configurations of Trump/Biden wins. Of the 'swing' states, for one configuration I found Trump can afford to lose Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Nevada and New Hampshire, and still retain the presidency. He'll have to win Arizona and Wisconsin, though, which seems doubtful. I just think that a Biden victory is the pits. The Americans never cease to amaze me though. I remember when Carter won (probably against Ford), that I could not believe it.
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Post by cjm on Nov 3, 2020 5:46:57 GMT
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Post by cjm on Nov 3, 2020 5:56:45 GMT
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Post by cjm on Nov 3, 2020 6:10:07 GMT
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Post by Trog on Nov 3, 2020 7:51:11 GMT
Look, I'll laugh myself into a coma if Trump wins, even with all that egg on my face, but frankly I believe this is just wishful thinking. Professor Norpoth probably retired about 20 years ago - it's no skin of his nose if he's wildly wrong. He may just as well go out spectacularly, on the off-change that he got it right.
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Post by cjm on Nov 3, 2020 8:33:59 GMT
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Post by cjm on Nov 3, 2020 8:41:25 GMT
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Post by Trog on Nov 4, 2020 2:02:06 GMT
Trump got Florida.
He needs to get Ohio and North Carolina - not looking too good. Maybe he's going to loose even Georgia .
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